Proactively Managing COVID-19 Risk
How should Product Leaders prepare for the global health crisis?
(UPDATE 3/12/2020: For a really good analysis of the data and reporting on the novel coronavirus, I recommend reading: “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now” by Tomas Pueyo.)
The World Health Organization was informed about an outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown cause” in December 2019, originating in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. Today, less than 3 months later, we have now identified the virus as SARS-CoV-2 and named the infectious disease it causes, coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Further, we have amassed some significant health impact, including 4,012 confirmed deaths globally.
Global Confirmed Cases: 113,603
Total Deaths: 4,012
Total Recovered: 63,625
Countries with cases: 112
Source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE (as of March 9, 2020, 9:14p ET)
These numbers are small in comparison with the seasonal flu. According to a 2017 study in the Lancet, the seasonal flu kills 291,000–646,000 people each year. In the US this we have experienced 12,000–61,000 deaths annually since 2010 (Ref: CDC). With 9.3m — 45m people showing symptoms, researchers estimate a <0.1% fatality rate.
However, the seasonal flu is well understood from decades of research. COVID-19 is novel and the fatality rate has varied from 1–4% (Latest estimate from WHO is 3.4%). We don’t have sufficient experience to know the true fatality rate. We don’t know exactly how easy it is spread within communities. We don’t know if it will disappear in the spring and roar back in the fall. This list of unknowns is large and the fear is high to date.
Government Response Recap
Countries directly impacted began testing and quarantining possible cases quickly. As with any response by governments and NGOs, there has been plenty of debate on actions taken and success so far. Has it been aggressive enough? Is test roll-out taking too long? Can’t we do more to fast track vaccine and treatment development?
This article will not dig into those debates but will instead try to focus on what…
