How to Ride a Pool Pony Down the Zambezi
(Uncertainty Mapping: a lean technique for taking the risk out of product design and getting your team into the learning mindset)
Product development is a lot like whitewater rafting, and since I’ve been in product development for quite a few years I thought I’d put my skills to good use. I’ve decided to ride the Zambezi at peak flow and I’ve volunchosen you to come along. Did I mention we’re going do it on Pool Ponies?
If we survive this we’ll be famous. Like, Beyoncé famous. Okay maybe Jackass famous, but famous. I’m going to help us plan the trip. Don’t worry, we can nail this. I’ve been planning product design projects for years. No surprise, our funds aren’t infinite and time is limited because someone else may be planning the same trip, and let’s face it, it’s no good if we’re the second people to do this. Also, if we’re going to whitewater raft down the Zambezi on a Pool Pony it’s going to have to be pink. Obviously.
Just like embarking on the design and build of a new product, our adventure down the Zambezi could go sideways in too many ways to count. To avoid screwing up, we’ll need to get our priorities right and use our limited resources to maximise our chances of success, and minimise our chances of, well, dying. Miss something important and we’ll literally find ourselves up the creek without a paddle.
So how might we fail? We need to think about that when we plan. We know there are risks, that’s what’s going to make it worthwhile. But we can reduce obstacles to success and control the most significant risks. We can’t remove the rocks, but we can find out where they are and plan for them.
Just like a great new product, we know success isn’t a given. That’s partly what makes a good business proposition — there isn’t a refined product already fulfilling the market need. Back to the Zambezi, it’s far more fun than product planning.
The trick to planning a Pool Pony ride down the Zambezi rapids
is prioritising the tasks that will increase our knowledge where we need it most. The truth is, what we don’t know could kill us, especially if it’s a crocodile. Are there crocodiles in the Zambezi? I’m not sure. If we map out all the things we are uncertain about we can reduce the risk of failure. Let’s do this…
How to do Uncertainty Mapping
- Grab a big sheet of paper or a whiteboard, Post-its and Sharpies.
- Draw a vertical line all the way down the left of the page. At the top of the line add an arrow tip and write the word ‘Impact’.
- Draw another line along the bottom of the page. Draw an arrow tip on the right end and write the word ‘Uncertainty’.
- Divide the page into four by drawing a large dotted plus sign.
You should have something that looks like this…
5. Next, think about how we could fail. What questions do you have about our adventure? Take your Post-its and write the first question that comes to mind. I’m going with ‘Are there crocodiles in the Zambezi?’
I haven’t got a clue, so I’d put this Post-it at the extreme right end of the ‘uncertainty’ scale. If there are crocodiles, the impact is potentially pretty extreme (i.e. getting eaten) so I’d move the Post-it up to the top end of the ‘impact’ line so it’s in the top right corner of your graph.
6. Continue to put Post-its on the board for every aspect of the trip/project, but focus more on things you’re not sure about rather than the things you do know.
We’re done! Almost…
Now we have a prioritised plan, we’ll start by focussing on the highest impact/uncertainty Post-its in the top right quadrant. The goal is to reduce the uncertainty so we can move the Post-its to the left of the board.
We’ll also need to reduce the impact of the uncertainty, which we can only do by increasing our understanding of it. We can either prepare for the challenges (uncertainty), or try to plan them out. For example, could we choose a section of the river where there aren’t any crocodiles? I’d prefer that.
The beauty of this approach is it works for any project. Reducing uncertainty in the most impactful areas is the key to reducing project risk and maximising your chance of successfully releasing a product, and a successful product at that. Especially when we consider that often one of the biggest risks is ‘will anyone care that we made this thing?’
If every factor in a project was a certainty, planning outcomes would be a given and the task would be a simple one. Unfortunately that’s a fantasy. Risk is simply a factor of uncertainty and impact. Logically speaking, a potential disaster is a risk until it becomes a certainty. If you’re in a plane and the wings fall off at 37,000 feet you’re not at risk of dying, it’s a certainty. Don’t waste your last moments trying to work out how to survive.
Similarly, if you’re designing a new smartphone app to help people count the number of times they’ll blink a day, your biggest problem might be whether or not anyone cares enough to download your app. And you’d best find that out first. If you’re building a teleportation device the biggest risks might include feasibility challenges like, say, the laws of physics. Or maybe that thing that happened to the guy in The Fly. Either way decreasing uncertainty and focusing on learning is the key to success.
By the way, I haven’t been able to find any pink Pool Ponies so we may have to settle for yellow, and I think we should wear matching swimmers. So, are you in?
